A new poll shows Republican Spencer Cox with a commanding lead in the Utah gubernatorial election.
The survey from Noble Predictive Insights shows Cox leading Democratic nominee Brian King by 26 points, 49%- 23%.
19% of voters are still undecided.
The poll gives Phil Lyman's long-shot write-in bid just 5%.
This new survey underscores that Cox cruising to a second term in office is the most likely outcome.
Still, Lyman's write-in campaign does add some uncertainty to the race.
There are hopes, chiefly among Lyman's supporters, that he can ride a wave of anti-Cox sentiment to a stunning upset in November. Others have speculated that if Lyman can split the GOP vote with Cox, it might somehow open the door for King to win.
For either of those scenarios to materialize, a lot of things would have to break just right for Lyman or King.
In Utah's last six gubernatorial elections, the Republican candidates received, on average, 66% of the vote, and Democrats averaged 23% support.
If Phil Lyman gets at least 20%, a plurality would likely decide the winner instead of a majority. The last time that happened in Utah was 32 years ago.
While not an "apples-to-apples" comparison, the 1988 and 1992 Utah governor's elections are worth reviewing. In both elections, former Republican Merrill Cook ran as an independent and siphoned enough support away from the other candidates that the winner received only a plurality of votes.
- In 1988, Cook received 21% of the vote and finished third behind Republican Norm Bangerter, the incumbent, and Democrat Ted Wilson. Bangerter won with 40%
- Four years later, Cook finished ahead of Democrat Stewart Hanson with 33.6% support. Republican Mike Leavitt won with 42.2%.
The eventual winner received around 40% of the vote in both elections. If Lyman can reach at least 20%, 2024 could resemble 1998 or 1992.
Cook's name appeared on the ballot as an independent. Lyman does not have that luxury and needs his supporters to take the extra step of writing in his name, which adds another hurdle.
If Lyman does get 20% or more, where will those votes come from? Lyman is unlikely to have much appeal beyond hardcore Republicans and politically conservative independents, especially those who have soured on Spencer Cox.
Lyman has repeatedly attacked Cox for being insufficiently conservative. His campaign has leaned in hard with anti-immigrant rhetoric and has latched on to conspiracy theories arising from Donald Trump's lies about election fraud in 2020. They're also hoping to rekindle long-dormant outrage about lockdowns and mask mandates during the COVID pandemic.
Republican delegates overwhelmingly supported Lyman over Cox at April's Utah GOP State Convention. That became a springboard for his surprisingly strong showing in the June primary election, losing to Cox by under 10 points.
Cox's convention loss revealed a simmering discontent with him among many GOP base voters, translating into a closer-than-expected primary contest.
In Utah, an incumbent governor has lost the convention vote and won a primary election at least once. In 2016, then-Gov. Gary Herbert was defeated at the GOP convention by former Overstock.com CEO Jonathan "JJ" Johnson. Herbert crushed Johnson in the primary election, 72%—28%.
Unlike Lyman, Johnson did not pursue a write-in bid after his primary loss.
Since he came into office, Cox has never been in a particularly strong political position.
- Cox had not yet completed a full term in the Utah Legislature when Gov. Gary Herbert tapped him to replace Greg Bell as Lt. Governor in 2013.
- Cox won the delegate vote at the 2020 Utah GOP convention, prevailing over former Utah House Speaker Greg Hughes 55%-45%. Because of the COVID pandemic, the party could not hold neighborhood caucus meetings to elect new delegates, so the delegates elected in 2018 were held over for another term.
- Cox squeaked past former Gov. Jon Huntsman in the 2020 GOP primary election by just 6,319 votes, winning with just over a third of the vote. Because of that narrow margin, Huntsman briefly toyed with the idea of launching a write-in campaign but decided against it because the effort would lead to more division in the state. Cox handily defeated Democrat Chris Peterson by more than 30 points in November.
Before the 2020 election, Cox had forged a reputation as a compassionate, moderate Republican. That persona appealed to other moderate Republicans, Republican-leaning independents and even some Democrats.
- In 2016, he got national attention for a speech he gave condemning violence and offering compassion to the LGBTQ+ community in the aftermath of a mass shooting at a gay nightclub.
- Cox met with LGBTQ youth who staged a sit-in at the Utah Capitol to protest the killing of a bill to ban conversation therapy in 2019.
Cox was late to pick up on the shift to the right among Republicans, especially attacks on diversity programs and growing anti-trans rhetoric. In 2022, Cox got sideways with the GOP base when he vetoed a ban on transgender athletes in girls' sports. He's been playing catch-up ever since.
Consider his sudden flip-flop on his support for Donald Trump. Cox did not vote for Trump in 2016 and 2020 and had been critical of the former president's rhetoric. Cox abruptly changed his tune in July and endorsed Trump in the 2024 election.
Cox hasn't said whether his change of heart on Trump was an attempt to shore up support on his right flank, but it's easy to believe it was one consideration.
Cox's veering to the right could alienate at least some of the more moderate Republicans and independents who have supported him in the past. It's not a stretch to say those voters won't defect to Lyman, but they might consider voting for Democratic nominee Brian King.
King's only realistic shot at an upset is for Lyman to pull enough support from Cox to turn the race into a "jump ball" where 40% would be enough to win.
Democrats make up about 15% of active voters in Utah. King would need to cobble together a coalition of Democrats, independents who don't support Cox or Lyman and even some Republicans willing to cross over and vote for him. Independent U.S. Senate candidate Evan McMullin employed a similar strategy in 2022 when he received 42.74% statewide against Republican Mike Lee.
It's extremely unlikely, but not impossible, for Lyman to win. For that to happen, he would probably need to pull a majority of Republican votes away from Cox and hope there's enough independent support to get him close to 40%.
Winning as a write-in is extremely rare but not unheard of. In 2010, Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski became just the second person ever to win a U.S. Senate seat as a write-in candidate. The only other person to accomplish the feat was Strom Thurmond in 1954.
In Utah, the highest-profile race ever won by a write-in candidate was in 1970 when Charles "Chic" Bullen defeated former Utah House Speaker Franklyn Gunnell. Both Bullen and Gunnell were Republicans, but Gunnell had alienated many party members. A coalition of Republicans and Democrats in Cache County worked to qualify Bullen as a write-in candidate via petition.
