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The 2024 elections in Utah went about how you would expect, with Republicans dominating across most of the state.
Those wins at the ballot box will boost the political fortunes of some, while others are left to pick up the pieces and try to figure out what went wrong.
Winner: Sen. Mike Lee
It feels like a lifetime ago when Sen. Lee called on Donald Trump to drop out of the 2016 presidential race after the Access Hollywood tape was made public. Since then, Lee has become one of Trump's biggest cheerleaders.
That flip-flop will likely pay off handsomely for Lee. He will not only play a major role in helping to pick the next leadership team for the new GOP majority in the Senate, but he is also on the shortlist for several top assignments in the second Trump administration (Attorney General? Supreme Court?).
Winner: Spencer Cox
For eight years, Spencer Cox held Donald Trump at arm's length, refusing to vote for or endorse him. Cox was clearly holding out hope that the pre-Trump GOP would somehow rise from the ashes, even though it was increasingly clear that version of the Republican party no longer existed.
In August, Cox abruptly changed his calculation and endorsed Trump, telling The Atlantic's McCay Coppins that he would not have any influence on the future direction of the GOP if he didn't.
Cox has a lot of bridge repair work ahead of him. The most engaged segments of the pro-Trump GOP in Utah either don't trust him or openly despise him. He was humiliated by Republican delegates at this year's
There's some speculation in Utah Republican circles that Cox might be angling for a spot in a second Trump administration - possibly as Secretary of the Interior.
Loser: Spencer Cox
On Tuesday, the Associated Press declared Cox the winner of Utah's gubernatorial race at 10:29 pm. At 10:30, Cox became a lame-duck governor. Before he launched his re-election campaign, Cox loudly proclaimed he would only serve for two terms.
With Cox removing himself from the board, expect the jockeying to replace him among Republicans to get underway sooner rather than later. There are already rumblings that Speaker of the House Mike Schultz is eyeing a gubernatorial run in 2028. Expect others to join him.
Cox will be much weaker politically in his second term than in his first. Not only is he a lame duck, but he saw a not-insignificant drop in support at the ballot box. In 2020, Cox won with nearly 63% support. According to preliminary results, Cox won just over 56% of voters on Tuesday.
The last time an incumbent Utah governor underperformed at the ballot box compared with his previous election was nearly a quarter century ago. In 2000, incumbent Mike Leavitt's bid for a third term in office received 55.77%, almost 20 points below his winning percentage from the previous election. That year, Leavitt faced former Democratic congressman Bill Orton, who was still very popular among Utah voters.
Cox is also running slightly behind Donald Trump in Utah. If those numbers hold, it would be the third time since 2000.
- In 2012, Republican Gary Herbert got a lower vote percentage in the state (68.41%) than GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney (72.55%).
- In 2000, Leavitt ran 11 points behind George W. Bush in Utah, 66.83% to 55.77%.
Loser: Phil Lyman
Lyman received a little more than 75,000 write-in votes when the first tallies were released on Tuesday night, which was good for about 8% of the vote.
Despite the loss, Lyman will likely remain a minor figure in Utah politics. He and his loyal supporters are still clinging to the hope that the courts will somehow intervene and declare him the winner or force a new election.
Lyman's first attempt to get the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene was rejected because of a filing error. As of Wednesday, his revised petition has not yet arrived at the Supreme Court.
Loser: Utah Democrats
Tuesday was mostly a rough go for Utah Democrats. Simply put, voters aren't buying what they're selling.
After Tuesday night, Kamala Harris was ahead in just three of Utah's 29 counties. The same goes for U.S. Senate nominee Caroline Gleich and gubernatorial candidate Brian King. Joe Biden carried the same three counties - Salt Lake, Summit and Grand - in 2020. Hardly a sign of a party that's expanding its appeal.
The last Democrat to win a statewide race was Attorney General Jan Graham. Since then, Republicans have won 54 statewide elections in a row - President, Governor, U.S. Senate, Attorney General, Treasurer and Auditor.
If the preliminary results hold, Utah Democrats are on track to flip only one seat in the Utah Legislature. If that holds, the GOP majority in the House would shrink from 61-14 to 60-15. The Senate partisan split will likely stay the same, with 23 Republicans and 6 Democrats.
Democrat Jake Fitisemanu holds a slim 451-vote lead over Republican Fred Cox in HD30. That seat is held by GOP Rep. Judy Weeks Rohner, who is losing to Democrat Karen Kwan in SD12.
The last time Democrats flipped so few seats away from Republicans was in 1998, when they went from 20 to 21 in the Utah House. Still, adding a single seat would be an improvement over the 2022 elections when they saw their numbers shrink from 17 to 14.
Some seats with close margins could go either way, depending on the remaining outstanding ballots.
- HD10. Incumbent Democrat Rosemary Lesser leads Republican Jill Koford by 280 votes. Lesser beat Koford by 500 votes in 2022.
- HD26. Republican Rep. Matt MacPherson, the incumbent, is ahead of Democrat Jeanetta Williams by 420 votes after Tuesday. In 2022, Republicans won this seat by 127 votes.
- HD27. This was the closest Utah Legislative race in 2022 when Republican Anthony Loubet prevailed by just 67 votes. As of Tuesday night, Loubet has a more comfortable lead of 649 votes.
Winner: Republicans who put Amendments A and D on the ballot
I was curious whether there would be any backlash at the ballot box for legislative Republicans over a pair of controversial proposed changes to Utah's Constitution.
It appears there wasn't.
Amendment A, which would overhaul how public education is funded, and Amendment D, which sought to give lawmakers near unfettered power to repeal any voter-approved ballot measure, were voided from the ballot following court challenges.
Voters didn't seem to care much, as nearly every incumbent legislator on the ballot was ahead after Tuesday night.
Winner: Utah's federalism push
With Donald Trump returning to the White House, Utah's efforts to push back against perceived overreach by the federal government, especially regarding federal lands and environmental regulations, should get a big boost.
Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation's blueprint for the coming Trump administration, calls for ending federal land protections and killing the Antiquities Act. That alone is music to the ears of Utah Republicans in the Legislature.
Utah is asking the Supreme Court to overturn long-standing legal precedents to wrest control of 18.5 million acres of public lands away from the federal government. Trump's victory makes me believe that the odds that this will succeed have gone up significantly.
That's not all.
Utah Republicans are counting on a far more lenient Environmental Protection Agency under Trump. That was apparent when they pushed back the timeline on a bill to keep a coal-burning power plant operational until after the 2024 election.
Loser: Republicans in Salt Lake County
Utah remains solidly red, but it was a blue Democratic wave in Salt Lake County on Tuesday.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Republicans trail in every countywide vote except for State Treasurer.
Democrat Jenny Wilson is on track for another term as Salt Lake County Mayor, running about 5 points ahead of her winning percentage from 2020. Democrats are also poised to flip the County Treasurer, Assessor, Recorder and Surveyor offices away from Republican control.
Republicans are running significantly behind previous votes in a pair of County Council races. Republican Carlos Moreno leads Democrat Katie Olson by just over 1,500 votes in County Council District 2. Republican Dave Alvord won by more than 9,000 votes in 2000. In District 6, Republican Dea Theodore is ahead of Democrat Zach Robinson by 1,600 votes. Four years ago, Theodore won the race by nearly 10,000 ballots.
